Trends in Building-Related Energy and Carbon Emissions: Actual and Alternate Scenarios

Stephanie J. Battles and Eugene M. Burns, Energy Information Administration

Keywords

Abstract

Eighty-two percent of all greenhouse gas emitted by human activity is energy-related carbon dioxide. Since 1990, 48 percent of the increase in U.S. carbon emissions can be attributed to increasing emissions from the building sector.

In this paper, trends in energy use and energy prices for the building sector are followed by explanations of some of the factors underlying these trends such as: (1) energyefficiency changes, (2) change in the fuel mix, (3) income and wealth, and (4) demographics. Next is a discussion on carbon trends as related to the use of energy in the building sector.

Finally, two types of scenarios are presented. The first scenarios show the trends if energy and carbon intensities, fuel mix, and electricity energy and carbon intensities are held constant (1980). The second set of scenarios deal with the “what ifs”—such as how energy use and the related carbon emissions would change if we replaced all the 1997 refrigerator stock with 1997 new refrigerators.