Saturation, Penetration, Transformation: How Do You Know When a Market Has Changed?

Stephen Grover, ECONorthwest
David Cohan, Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance
My K. Ton, Ecos Consulting

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Abstract

Sales of compact fluorescent bulbs in the Northwest exceeded 6.5 million units in 2001, a 25-fold increase over projections made in 2000. We know that sales were driven by the energy crisis in California and the resulting media coverage, utility coupons, rate hikes and retail advertisements. What we do not yet know is whether the market has been transformed or if this is simply a (large) blip in long-term sales trends that will disappear in the near future. Long-term sales will depend on consumers’ overall satisfaction with the bulbs they have purchased and their willingness to pay full retail price. Many current purchases were subsidized by up to 95 percent with utility coupons, making it difficult to determine how consumers will act in the future when such subsidies are not available.

As part of the evaluation of the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance’s ENERGY STAR® Residential Lighting Program, a tracking system was created to monitor CFL sales data in the region and two consumer satisfaction surveys were fielded, the first in June of 2001 and the second in April of 2002. These surveys indicate that satisfaction with past CFL purchases is a key factor influencing future CFL purchases. While most respondents were satisfied with their CFLs and intend to purchase more in the future, those who are dissatisfied with CFLs tended to switch back to incandescent bulbs. Of those that are dissatisfied with their CFLs, the most common cause was insufficient brightness and poor light quality. Program efforts such as expanded retailer training and more accurate labeling will help customers choose the most appropriate CFL for each application, thereby reducing these problems in the future.