Efficient Techniques for Estimating Baseline and Market Shares Projections From Market Transformation Interventions

David Weitzel and Lisa A. Skumatz, Skumatz Economic Research Associates, Inc.

Keywords

Abstract

Researchers are looking for effective techniques to estimate market shares and impacts for market transformation and DSM interventions. This project used ordered logit techniques to examine impacts from interventions designed to encourage greater use of natural cooling technologies in the residential and commercial sectors.

Ordered logit solves a number of problems faced by evaluators and program planners estimating of baseline market shares and impacts from MT interventions. The technique provides estimates and confidence intervals for market shares for alternative technologies under intervention scenarios – both baseline and into the future. It also proved robust and cost-effective technique because it requires relatively few surveys to provide estimates.

In this application, we estimated baseline market shares for standard AC, more efficient, and natural cooling air conditioning technologies in both the residential and commercial sectors. The model also projected changes in market shares over time from a set of market transformation interventions, including: buying down warranties, providing rebates, and extended field / demonstration experience. The project involved designing “cards” incorporating combinations of technologies of interest and their key features with levels of proposed interventions to be ranked by respondents. This information was analyzed to develop the market shares, which were analyzed to develop recommendations of the most effective MT interventions for increasing natural cooling. In addition, we explored barriers to the adoption of natural cooling technologies and provided program design recommendations. Graphs of key results and implications for evaluation and planning are presented in the paper.