Cost Effective Contributions to New York’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets from Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Resources

David G. Hill and Chris Neme, Vermont Energy Investment Corporation
John Plunkett, Optimal Energy, Inc.
Phil Mosenthal, Optimal Energy Inc.
Lawrence J. Pakenas, New York State Energy Research and Development Authority
R. Neal Elliot, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy
Christine Donovan, C.T. Donovan Associates

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Abstract

This paper summarizes the results of a comprehensive analysis of the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy resources in New York. The study includes characterization and market analysis of over 3,400 efficiency measure permutations and 30 renewable energy technologies. A key element of the study is the development of an integrated supply curve for achievable efficiency savings and renewable energy generation. This curve identifies the leastcost portfolio of investments in efficiency and renewables needed to meet reduced levels of conventional (i.e., fossil fuel) electricity generation. Projecting from market intervention strategies that have proven successful in the past, the study concludes that efficiency and renewable energy could be expected to reduce New York State’s electricity generation requirements by more than 19,939 GWh annually by 2012, and by more than 27,244 GWh by 2022. This energy represents 12.7% and 16.1% of expected statewide requirements for those years. These contributions could be achieved at a net levelized energy cost of less than 3 cents per kilowatt hour, which is below those of the conventional electric generation they would avoid. The total net resource benefits attained by implementing the least-cost mix of renewable and efficiency resources are estimated to exceed $4.5 billion in 2012 and $9 billion in 2022. The results support the conclusion that New York will be significantly better off economically if it pursues a least-cost portfolio of efficiency and renewable energy resources to meet its electric sector’s greenhouse gas reduction targets.