Putting Downward Pressure on Natural Gas Prices: The Impact of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency

Ryan Wiser, Mark Bolinger, and Matthew St. Clair, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

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Abstract

Increased deployment of renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE) is expected to reduce natural gas demand and in turn place downward pressure on gas prices. A number of recent modeling studies include an evaluation of this effect. Based on data compiled from those studies summarized in this paper, each 1% reduction in national natural gas demand appears likely to lead to a long-term average wellhead gas price reduction of 0.75% to 2.5%, with some studies predicting even more sizable reductions. Reductions in wellhead prices will reduce wholesale and retail electricity rates, and will also reduce residential, commercial, and industrial gas bills. We further find that many of these studies appear to represent the potential impact of RE and EE on natural gas prices within the bounds of current knowledge, but that current knowledge of how to estimate this effect is extremely limited. While more research is therefore needed, existing studies suggest that it is not unreasonable to expect that any increase in consumer electricity costs attributable to RE and/or EE deployment may be substantially offset by the corresponding reduction in delivered natural gas prices. This effect represents a wealth transfer (from natural gas producers to consumers) rather than a net gain in social welfare, and is therefore not a standard motivation for policy intervention on economic grounds. Reducing gas prices and thereby redistributing wealth may still be of importance in policy circles, however, and may be viewed in those circles as a positive ancillary effect of RE and EE deployment.