Consumer Price Impacts of Efficiency Standards

Larry Dale and Dev Millstein, Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator

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Abstract

In this report we calculate the change in final consumer prices due to minimum efficiency standards, focusing on a standard economic model of the air-conditioning and heating equipment (ACHE) wholesale industry. The model examines the relationship between the marginal cost to distribute and sell equipment and the final consumer price in this industry. The model predicts that the impact of a standard on the final consumer price is conditioned by its impact on marginal distribution costs. For example, if a standard raises the marginal cost to distribute and sell equipment a small amount, the model predicts that the standard will raise the final consumer price a small amount as well.

Statistical analysis suggest that standards do not increase the amount of labor needed to distribute equipment—the same employees needed to sell lower efficiency equipment can sell high efficiency equipment. Labor is a large component of the total marginal cost to distribute and sell air-conditioning and heating equipment. We infer from this that standards have a relatively small impact on ACHE marginal distribution and sale costs. Thus, our model predicts that a standard will have a relatively small impact on final ACHE consumer prices. Our statistical analysis of U.S. Census Bureau wholesale revenue tends to confirm this model prediction.

Generalizing, we find that the ratio of manufacturer price to final consumer price prior to a standard tends to exceed the ratio of the change in manufacturer price to final consumer price resulting from a standard. The appendix expands our analysis through a typical distribution chain for commercial and residential air-conditioning and heating equipment.