Using Scenario Analysis to Forecast Long-Term Residential Electric Energy Consumption in California

Alan North and Michael Rufo, Itron, Inc.

Keywords

Abstract

This paper presents results from a long-term forecast of electricity consumption in California’s residential sector to the year 2050. The model developed for our projections builds upon the California Energy Commission’s (CEC) forecast results and historic input data for the period 1970 to 2015. These data are expanded upon using other sources including long-term demographic forecasts, short-term bottom up energy-efficiency potential studies, econometric forecasts, and interviews with technologists on long-term emerging technology prospects. The focus of our work is on the interaction among key drivers of future electricity use, which includes population, energy efficiency, and end use service demands. We use scenario analysis to address the major uncertainties associated with our long-term forecasting horizon.

Our results show that even if energy efficiency improvements continue to provide significant reductions in electricity consumption through 2050, aggregate consumption also continues to increase due to increasing population and energy service demands. Under one extremely aggressive and optimistic scenario, residential electricity consumption is reduced by 2050 to today’s level; however, this scenario requires reducing per capita consumption by almost 40 percent, which would be an unprecedented accomplishment, given historic efficiency achievements. Continuation of existing efficiency programs and standards, along with new, more much more aggressive policies, and a change in consumer adoption behavior would likely be necessary to achieve these reductions.