The Value of Advanced Technologies in the U.S. Buildings Sector in Climate Change Mitigation

Page Kyle, Leon Clarke, and Steven J. Smith, Joint Global Change Research Institute

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Abstract

There is a wide body of research addressing the potential of advanced technologies to reduce energy consumption in buildings. How such improvements relate to global climate change is less clear, due to the complexity of the climate change issue, and the interactions within the energy system as a whole that need to be considered. This study uses MiniCAM, an integrated assessment model, to examine the potential contribution of advances in four groups of buildings technologies in meeting a national carbon emissions constraint from 2005 to 2095. The constraint is part of a global policy to mitigate climate change by stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 450 ppmv. Technology groups analyzed include building shells, heat pumps for HVAC and water heating, solid-state lighting, and miscellaneous electric equipment. In a scenario with all technology groups advanced and no emissions constraint, the buildings sector energy consumption is reduced by 28% in 2095. Advanced heat pumps and energy-efficient miscellaneous electric equipment are responsible for the greatest energy reductions seen in this analysis, but all technology groups are important for reducing future buildings sector energy consumption. With an emissions constraint, the buildings sector tends to switch to electricity, while the electric power sector dramatically lowers the carbon intensity of electricity generation through carbon capture and storage, and expanded nuclear and renewable energy. In a scenario with advances in all buildings technology groups analyzed, total discounted costs of carbon abatement are reduced by 17%. Advanced heat pumps are especially important for facilitating fuel switching towards electricity.