Assessing the Impact of Behavioral Energy Efficiency Measures: A Simulation Approach

Robert Russell and Christian Miner, Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance

Keywords

Abstract

In an effort to optimize production with respect to energy, the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA) sponsored a study to determine potential energy savings in the food processing industry from behavioral modifications by plant personnel. Previously, measurement procedures of plant managers did not account for changes in weather or production flows and their impact on energy consumption. As a result, the initial estimates by management failed to address uncertainty and the facility's dynamic environment.

The main focus of this paper is to analyze the effects of behavioral modifications on energy consumption. To measure these effects, NEEA supplied 3 years of facility production and billing data. This data made it possible to examine the effects of their energy efficiency efforts by first testing for structural changes at the advent of the behavioral modifications, estimating marginal rates of energy consumption and finally, establishing a range of future outcomes using a Monte Carlo simulation.

Manufacturing facilities attempting to optimize their production have become increasingly interested in optimizing energy usage. The result is a focus on industrial energy consumption per unit of output. This paper outlines a methodology for estimating the impact of behavioral changes on facility energy consumption where traditional methodologies fall short. The advantage gained in a Monte Carlo simulation is an improved estimation that incorporates uncertainty into forecasting