Assessing the Impact of Social-Cultural and Social-Economic Trends on the Total Energy Requirement of Households

Karla F. B. de Paauw and Adriaan H. Perrels, Netherlands Energy Research Foundation

Keywords

Abstract

In OECD countries trends such as the aging of the population while enjoying better pensions and the individualisation of lifestyles are important driving forces behind changes in aggregate consumption patterns. Ongoing motorisation, decreasing household size and the mechanisation of domestic tasks are well known changes, In turn these consumption trends imply substantial increases of the total energy requirement of households, despite the decrease of specific energy use of numerous appliances. From these observations alone one might derive that technologically induced improvements of energy efficiency constitute a major contribution to the reduction of energy demand. Yet, at the same time the evolution of the volume and composition of private consumption has demonstrated so far that the technical reduction potential can be more than offset by effects on the consumer side.

The present paper discusses investigations that are made by means of a long term lifestyle oriented energy model developed at ECN. An important idea underlying these investigations is that some of the basic trends in society as ƒ referred to above do not have to lead inevitably to increases of energy requirements of households (direct + indirect energy use). Rather, these outcomes depend on all kinds of (side) conditions, such as the organisation and quality of public and private infrastructure (e.g. organisation of time and space, flexible labour possibilities, attitudes about family care, etc). The paper will particularly deal with:

the way social-cultural and social-economic trends can be traced back through the economy in order to assess the energy impacts;
identification of relevant trends and demonstration of the impacts of differing (side)-conditions on these trends. An application will be shown with respect to the energy use for thermal applicationsƒ at home.