Dynamics of energy-efficient technology for commercial buildings in Sweden: how much can really be achived and how fast?

Lena A. Christiansson, Lund University
Joel N. Swisher, UNEP Collaborationg Centre, Risö National Lab

Keywords

Abstract

This paper discusses the results of a time-dynamic analysis of the possible effects of government and utility-sponsored energy-efficiency programs on electric energy use in Swedish commercial buildings. In the study, which includes efficient lighting, improvements in ventilation, commercial cooling and cooking, we use energy scenarios to analyse how policy measures can effect future energy demand. The focus is on dynamic scenarios of electricity demand and efficiency improvement, based on energy performance standards and utility demand-side management (DSM) investment. The scenarios account for the dynamics of equipment turnover, existing trends in technology, and the distribution of energy efficiency among equipment models on the market.

Many of these technologies are cost-effective and likely to be implemented in time, especially if electricity prices increase. For commercial lighting, the scenarios show that demand-side management (DSM) programs, based on a utility-sponsored shared-savings approach, could keep energy use constant until 2020 despite 45 percent growth in energy services, i.e. growth in lumen-hours per year. Including other commercial end-uses electrical energy use would increase somewhat despite demand-side management (DSM) programs. Energy performance standards are including retrofit measures. Of particular interest are the results indicating important synergies in terms of the timing of the two types of programs. In this paper we show that a combination of utility DSM programs and energy performance standards could keep future energy use low. Other combinations of policies such as energy performance standards and technology procurement programs could also be of great interest.