Passenger Transport and Lifestyle in the 21th Century

Karla F.B. de Paauw and Erna Schol, Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN)

Abstract

In order to solve congestion and environmental problems, new transport technologies have to be implemented in the 21th century. The implementation of new energy efficient transport technologies depends among others on the acceptance of these technologies by households. The technologies have to fit into their lifestyles.

This paper is based on a study which is part of the project ?raffic and Transport in the 21th Centuryƒ. The study is carried out in cooperation with other institutes in the Netherlands. In this study four scenarios were set up for which two design dimensions were used. The design dimensions are: high versus low economic dynamics and big versus little value attached to sustainability. This resulted in four scenarios: unrestricted growth, sustainable growth, marking time and sustainable balance. For each scenario transport demand, available technologies, strategies, energy demand, energy supply and in particular electricity supply has to be drawn up by other institutes for the years 2005, 2020 and 2050. ECN Policy studies describes possible lifestyles for the future. For that a diagram has been made, in which variables as households, dwellings and activities are related with background variables, that result in four blueprints.

Although predictions for future lifestyles and their influence on mobility in the 21th century are precarious, the study will give indications in which way lifestyles can develop and what we can expect of future transport technologies. To especially electric vehicles attention is paid.