Trends in Energy Use and Efficiency: On the Road from Kyoto?

Fridtjof Unander and Lee Schipper, International Energy Agency

Keywords

Abstract

Building on earlier analysis of energy use and CO2 emissions in member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA), we quantify energy use and carbon emissions for nearly three dozen activities and economic branches from the early 1970s to the mid-1990s. We calculate the relative importance changes in energy intensities, final fuel mix, utility fuel mix, sectoral activity levels and structure had on energy use and carbon emissions over time. Using the US as an example we then demonstrate how this disaggregated approach can be applied to also study future development of CO2 emissions and the fuel switch and efficiency components that must be affected to alter business as usual trends sufficiently to meet the Kyoto targets.

The findings from this analysis do not give an optimistic view of the concluded accords at the COP-3 in Kyoto. In all sectors emissions reductions after 1990 are slower than in the previous fifteen years, a period that saw emissions reductions in spite of economic growth. In almost every country the main reason for the slow-down is lower rates of decline in end-use energy intensities. In fact, our analysis shows that with the long capital turnover rates in the utility sector and the relatively limited fuel shift potential at end-use level in the short run, current rates of energy efficiency improvements must be greatly and urgently accelerated if the Kyoto targets are to be met.