More Motion, More Speed, More Emissions: Will Increases in Carbon Emissions from Transport in IEA Countries Turn Around?

Lee Schipper, Céline Lilliu, and Michael Landwehr, International Energy Agency

Abstract

Transportation has long been associated with environmental and other problems beyond CO2. These include safety, air, water, and noise pollution, competition for urban space, balance of payments problems and risks associated with importing oil as the main transport fuel 1 . While few doubt that transportation returns a huge surplus to every economy, there are segments of transport activity where real social costs are greater than the benefits accruing to drivers or shippers. This was emphasised in a study organised by the European Conference of Ministers of Transport (ECMT 1998). That group concluded ìSignificant welfare gains could be realised through an adjustment of charges and taxes to provide incentives for reducing the external costs of transportî. They estimated that current welfare losses amount to ìseveral points of GDPî. This is shown in Figure 2. Internalisation of those costs, through both direct charging and some regulations, could have a significant restraining impact on the system in the long run.