An overview of the IEA transportation energy outlook with a detailed impact evaluation of fuel efficiency policies for passenger vehicles

Michael Landwehr, Celine Marie-Lilliu, and Laura Cozzi, International Energy Agency

Keywords

Abstract

A bottom-up modelling approach based on modally disaggregated energy efficiency and use indicators is applied for projecting and analysing energy demand patterns in transportation. The model covers different OECD regions for a time frame to 2020. Results are presented for a reference case that includes major energy and CO_2 policy measures enacted. As a second step, a set of possible, additional policies is determined, which attempts to reflect the current policy discussions in the different regions. The effect of these policy bundles on energy demand projections is estimated. The results imply that with the additional policies assumed a stabilisation of energy demand and CO_2-emissions after 2010 is in reach. The most prominent measure type currently enacted in the CO_2 context and possibly strengthened in the future is aimed at fuel efficiency improvements in passenger vehicles i.e. the European Voluntary Agreement of ACEA on car fuel efficiency and the Japanese °top-runnerô legislation for cars and light trucks. The article gives details of the impact assessment assuming a successful ACEA agreement and a successful toprunner programme in Europe and Japan respectively.