Energy Efficiency as a key element of the EU's Post-Kyoto Strategy - Results of an Integrated Scenario Analysis

Stefan Lechtenböhmer, Vanessa Grimm, Dirk Mitze, and Matthias Wissner, Wuppertal Institute for Climate Energy Environment

Keywords

energy efficiency, UNFCCC, Post-Kyoto, EU 25, greenhouse gas mitigation, scenario analysis, sustainable energy systems, energy efficiency potentials, energy modelling

Abstract

Under the framework of the UN framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol the targets and strategies for the second and third commitment period ("post-2012") have to be discussed and set in the near future. Regarding the substantial emission reductions that have to be shouldered by the industrialized nations over the next two decades it is evident that all available potentials to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have to be harnessed and that energy efficiency has to play a key role.

To substantiate this we developed a comprehensive scenario analysis of the EU 25s energy system and other greenhouse gas emissions until 2020. Our analysis shows

which key potentials to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are available,
by which policies and measures they are attainable
and which will be benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation measures.

By this analysis we show the mayor role of energy efficiency in all sectors and all member states. We demonstrate that a reduction of EU 25 greenhouse gas emissions by more than 30 % by 2020 is feasible, reasonable and - to a large extent - cost effective. We also develop a comprehensive policy package necessary to achieve ambitious Post-Kyoto targets.

The scenario analysis results in a clear identification of the needed strategies, policies and measures and especially the relevance of energy efficiency to achieve the necessary ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets. It also clearly shows the costs and the benefits of such a policy compared to a business as usual case.