Road Freight Transport in Sweden – Are There Any Signs of a Decoupling?

Max Åhman, Lund University

Keywords

Decoupling, Freight transport, Transport efficiency, Transport development, Transport growth

Abstract

Decoupling freight transport growth from the economic development is necessary for shaping a sustainable transport system.

This paper takes a closer look on the development of the road freight system in Sweden and explains, on an aggregated level, the relationship between freight transport demand, logistic efficiency and economic development. Future opportunities for decoupling road freight growth from GDP-growth are also assessed.

The weight (tonnes) of goods transported has levelled out despite a continuous growth in economy the last 25 years, a "strong" decoupling. A "weaker" decoupling trend can be seen looking at vehicle-km resulting from increased logistic efficiency (less empty running and increased average pay-load). However, as a result of goods being transported longer distances and freight lorries carrying greater loads, the freight activity measured as tonne-km and the CO2-emissions have been growing steadily showing no signs of decoupling from economic development.

The continued growth of road freight demand in Sweden, measured as tonne-km, can be explained by increasingly geographically dispersed manufacturing systems resulting from a general trend of reduced trade barriers and increased economic integration. There is thus a clear conflict of interest between increased European economic integration, resulting in greater economic efficiency, and the wishes to decouple freight transport from economic development. Internalising the external costs by higher taxes on fuel or road pricing, the currently favoured solution, will not be enough to curb growth as transport cost does not, to any major extent, influence business location decisions.