Sensitivity analysis of cost effective climate protection in the EU building stock

Chris Hamans, MSc, Roermond, The Netherlands

Keywords

EPBD, energy efficiency investments, EU building stock, energy price, price scenarios, energy cost savings, profits, price sensitivity, optimum U-values

Abstract

The impact of the Energy Performance Directive (2002/92/EC), and an extended EPBD for the EU-25 Member States were analysed and quantified. The EPBD was proved to be highly cost-effective for demand reducing measures in the building stock it was demonstrated that the EPBD will have a significant impact on the CO2 emissions of the building stock, with insulation measures of existing buildings offering the main saving potential. Coupling energy-efficiency measures with general maintenance and retrofit measures in the building sector, these measures are highly cost effective.

Since the energy market is highly volatile a sensitivity analysis was carried out to assess the effects of modified energy prices on the economic results.

Five energy price scenarios were analysed and justified, building the basis for the sensitivity analysis. The effects of these scenarios on the cost effectiveness of insulating a pitched roof of a residential building in a moderate climate based on a reference building were calculated.

The effects of modified energy prices on the economic results are assessed for the technical potentials for energy saving and cost savings. For both the present EPBD and a possible extended EPBD the energy cost savings are compared for the scenarios. Profits on the investments increase up to a factor larger than 3.