Transforming UK homes: achieving a 60% cut in carbon emissions by 2050

Mark Hinnells, Brenda Boardman, Sarah Darby, Gavin Killip, and Russell Layberry, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, United Kingdom

Keywords

market transformation, residential, refurbishment, retrofitting, new build, microgeneration, modelling scenarios

Abstract

A number of European Governments, including the UK, have a target for a reduction in CO2 emissions of 60 % by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. This paper explores the implications for policy towards energy use in homes. A 60 % cut in CO2 from homes is challenging given increases in the number of homes and in the demands for more heat, hot water, more light, and more appliances. It requires significant action now to put the UK on the right trajectory.

Market Transformation aimed at reduced carbon emissions uses a mixture of information, incentives, and regulation to transform the market for a given product. A Market Transformation approach has been adopted widely across the globe for electrical appliances. Here, the approach is extended to transforming the market for new build and existing homes, low and zero carbon technologies for generation of heat and/or electricity (often referred to as microgeneration) and for lights and appliances.

A computer model has been developed to describe the evolution of the stock of homes to 2050. The model has been validated against historical consumption. Sensitivity analysis has been used to test the importance of a number of assumptions (eg population and climate). The model is used to explore policy scenarios for market transformation and can powerfully inform policy design to reduce CO2. The model and underlying assumptions has been made publicly available to allow exploration of assumptions and testing of alternative assumptions, and could provide an architecture for other EU countries facing similar policy targets.