A long-term scenarios analysis on LEDs general lighting in China

Liu Hong, Energy Research Institute, National Development & Reform Commission, P.R.China, China

Keywords

LEDs general lighting, scenarios analysis

Abstract

Based on survey of China’s lighting products market and estimation of trends of LEDs technical innovation of general lighting, the paper has established a model to analyze the impacts on China’s future lighting market and energy efficiency potential as LEDs appear to be a next generation of general lighting source. By doing scenarios analysis, the results of this study indicated that only 1 % of LEDS contribution rate to the lighting market will be realized by 2018, while up to nearly 2.5 % by 2020 under the baseline scenarios; for technology-breakthrough scenarios, 1 % of LEDS contribution rate will be realized by 2015, increase to 14 % by 2020; while under the price-breakthrough scenarios, LEDS will constitute 1% contribution rate to the general lighting market by 2013, two years earlier in comparison, due to the decreased price, the market penetration process will speed up and by 2015 and 2020 the contribution rate of LEDs to general lighting market will increase to 9 % and 69 % respectively. Meanwhile, the electricity saving effects of LEDS with regard to general lighting field will show up approximately by 2013, with electricity consumption increase from over 180 billion kilowatt for general lighting of 2002 to 251.3 billion kilowatt in 2020 under baseline scenario; while under the technology-breakthrough scenario, the consumption for lighting of 2020 will be 234.1 billion kilowatt, under price-breakthrough scenario, the figure will drop to 154.2 billion kilowatt instead. Therefore, in 2020 there will be an energy saving possibility of 17.2 billion kilowatt with regard to the technology-breakthrough scenario; meanwhile the price-breakthrough solution in comparison with the baseline has a considerable energy saving potential over 97 billion kilowatt.