Long-term developments in the transport sector – comparing biofuel and hydrogen roadmaps

Martine Uyterlinde, Marc Londo, Per Godfroij, and Harm Jeeninga, ECN Policy Studies, The Netherlands

Keywords

transport, emission reduction, security of supply, biofuels, hydrogen, alternative fuels, policies, road map

Abstract

In view of climate change and rapidly declining oil reserves, alternative fuels for transport meet ever-increasing attention. Two promising options are biofuels, of which the market penetration has already started, and hydrogen, which, when used in fuel cell cars, could lead to zero-emission vehicles. This paper draws on the results of two ongoing EU projects - Refuel and HyWays – in which roadmaps are being developed for respectively biofuels and hydrogen . An analysis of synergies and possible conflicts between these road maps indicates that their most important potential conflict lies in competition for biomass as a feedstock. In this context, the hydrogen-fuel cell route has the advantage of a higher efficiency (in terms of km driven per ha or tonne biomass) than biofuels. Furthermore, hydrogen is more flexible in feedstock, since it can also be produced in a climate-friendly way from fossil resources such as coal. The key technology development synergy between biofuels and hydrogen is in gasification technology. This technology is required both for biomass-to-liquids, one of the more promising biofuels, and for hydrogen production from biomass and/or coal. The transportation sector will need both options in the long term: while hydrogen may become dominant for passenger cars, greening of long-distance heavy duty transport will become dependent on a bio-based diesel substitute. Finally, although both options are policy-dependent on the short term, policies will be more crucial for hydrogen than for biofuels since the former has a more disruptive character.

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