The Road from Kyoto: how much from transportation? Transport policies of six IEA countries

Panel: Panel 3: Mobility and Transport

Author:
Lee Schipper, International Energy Agency

Abstract

This paper summarises elements of a recent IEA book, "The Road from Kyoto", which analysed the transportation and CO_2 policies of six IEA countries. At the centre of much of the analysis is new framework, "ASIF", for decomposing changes in carbon emissions into changes in transportation activity, modal shares, modal energy intensities, and carbon content of fuels. Results from previous work are brought up to date for passenger transportation. We find some slowing of the growth in emissions from passenger transport, particularly in comparison with growth in GDP.

This schematic served for the case studies of six countries. We report somewhat optimistically that while neither dramatic policies nor technological surprises have stemmed growth in emissions, some countries appear to be attacking all components of CO_2 emissions with some savings in sight. The key element is the Voluntary Agreement on CO_2 emissions from new cars between EU Governments and the European automobile industry. We find that data on new car fuel economy, as well as data on test emissions from new cars suggest progress towards this goal. But unless the effort is strengthened and similar progress appears in the United States, emissions from passenger transportation will continue to grow slowly in the coming years. The Road from Kyoto will be a slow one.