The cost effective limit to UK carbon dioxide mitigation in 2010 and 2020

Panel: Panel 5: Energy Efficiency Markets & Financing Mechanisms

Authors:
Martin JOHNSON, Imperial College Centre for Energy Policy and Technology (ICCEPT)
Matthew LEACH, Imperial College Centre for Energy Policy and Technology (ICCEPT)

Abstract

This paper explores scenarios for CO_2 reduction to meet current targets in 2010 and for tougher targets, post-Kyoto in 2020. The paper presents and then builds upon a set of cost curves of CO_2 reduction measures in each sector of the UK. A Business As Usual scenario (based on current policy initiatives), and an alternative scenario (based on practical limits to the maximum rate of penetration of measures) are used to identify the broad segments in which major market opportunities may lie. The range of business opportunities created for energy service companies through policy responses to CO_2 reduction targets in the UK, and barriers facing them are examined.

The paper shows that the limit of cost-effective reductions of anthropogenic emissions of Carbon Dioxide in the UK under the developed scenario and with current technologies, are 20 Million tonnes Carbon (MTC) in 2010 and 32 MTC in 2020 (73.2 MTCO_2 and 117.1 MTCO_2 respectively). Given present projections of demand growth, these reductions equate to reductions in CO_2 in the UK from 1990 levels of 19% in 2010 and 21% in 2020. Therefore it seems the Governmentôs target of a 20% reduction in CO_2 levels from the 1990 baseline, by 2010 can be achieved in a cost neutral manner. However, beyond 2010 a reduction in nuclear generation and a continuing rise in energy use under the Business as Usual (BaU) scenario largely offsets additional cost effective measures. If the pressures to reduce CO_2 emissions continue to grow, then a reduction of 30% in CO_2 emissions by 2020 from 1990 levels could be required, necessitating 56 MTC of reductions.