Evaluation of policies and measures in the residential sector of the EU-15

Panel: Panel 5. Evaluation and monitoring

Authors:
Stefano Faberi, ISIS
Wolfgang Eichhammer, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI

Abstract

This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the impact of EU-15 Policies and Measures (P&M's) for energy efficiency and renewables in the residential sector (both national and at EU-level). Two types of impact analysis have been carried out. The first concerns a simulation exercise with the MURE simulation model: for each country, the savings corresponding to the application of the P&Ms were evaluated by measuring the impact of a given "Policy scenario" with respect to a "Reference". This simulation was carried out for two periods: 1990-2000 (Backcasting) and 2000-2025 (Forecasting). The backcasting simulation, carried out to better understand the P&M's future effectiveness, regards the comparison and evaluation of the gap between the hypothetic energy savings, due to the application of the P&Ms enforced during the backcasting period, and the real trend of the observed data. The results (energy saved, CO 2 avoided) broken down by main measure categories are discussed at European level. An example of the way the energy saving measures have been analysed and evaluated at country level is presented for France. The results of the forecasting impact analysis demonstrate that the EU residential sector is far from the Kyoto target for 2010 but also far from the objective of the planned EU Directive on Energy Efficiency and Energy Service (1% savings per year). For this reason a second type of impact analysis explores the possible achievable energy savings up to 2025 considering all economic savings possibilities.