Developing a strategy to speed up large-scale adoption of compressed-natural-gas-driven (CNG) cars

Panel: Panel 1: The foundations of a future energy policy. Longer term strategies

Authors:
Cees Egmond PhD, SenterNovem
Simone Houtman
R. Jonkers PhD
R. Gelissen

Abstract

Large-scale adoption of environmentally friendly, clean, silent and CO2-neutral technological innovations into the market is necessary to reduce the human causes of the greenhouse effect and global warming. In theory, an innovation diffuses smoothly into the market following an S-shaped curve when the number of adopters is plotted against time. In practice, diffusion of innovation does not move smoothly from left to right on the S-shaped curve. Fundamental differences in the adoption characteristics between the visionary early adopters and the pragmatic mainstream cause diffusion to stop before reaching the mainstream market segment. This “chasm” in the diffusion process is not the result of bad technology or bad products, but rather the result of “incomplete” products that do not meet the needs of the pragmatic mainstream.

In this paper, we report on a case study, conducted in the Netherlands, aimed at speeding up the adoption of the CNG car. This study contains an analysis of the market segments within a target group of local fleet owners. We used survey data covering about 200 local fleet owners. Through structured interviews and a questionnaire, we identified a niche group of the mainstream that would be most likely to adopt the CNG car. This niche is the group to target in a marketing strategy aimed at crossing the chasm. A focus-group discussion held with members of the niche identified the conditions under which the niche actors would consider buying CNG cars.

Based on the results of this focus group and the niche market analysis, we concluded that the marketing of the CNG car is still in its beginning phase and has to focus on the early market. Following our recommendations, car dealers and the municipality of Leeuwarden are now developing a plan for marketing the CNG car. The marketing will focus on the early market as the first step into the mainstream.