The EU's fifteen oldest member states can meet their joint Kyoto protocol greenhouse gas reduction target even without buying carbon credits on the international carbon market or including carbon sinks, according to annual projections released by the European environment agency (EEA) on Tuesday.

Compared to last year, when the agency predicted the EU-15 would barely reach their target even if they used all these means, the assessment is remarkably optimistic. It is also more positive than assessments in 2005 and 2004.

"The projections suggest we will meet our Kyoto target once additional actions have been adapted and implemented," said EU environment commissioner Stavros Dimas.

According to the projections, the EU-15 is on track to reduce its emissions by four per cent below 1990 levels by 2010 with existing policies alone. This is halfway to its Kyoto target of minus eight per cent. Additional policies both at EU and national level can make up the other half, says the EEA.

Government plans to buy carbon credits through Kyoto's flexible mechanisms could bring the cuts to 10.5 per cent, add the authors, and carbon sinks would improve this further to 11.4 per cent.

Only three EU-15 member states are currently not on track to meet their individual targets under the EU's burden-sharing agreement – Denmark, Italy and Spain – compared to seven last year.

The main change relative to last year appears to be the emission reduction potential of existing policies, which has increased from 0.6 to four per cent. This is because measures implemented under the European climate change programme during 2004-7 are beginning to take effect, says the European commission.

Two proposals expected to contribute to future emission cuts are one to include aviation in the EU emission trading scheme (ETS) and another to reduce the carbon emissions of road fuels. Further emission cuts will come from the ETS. But these have already been included in several national projections.

*Meanwhile, the average global concentration of carbon dioxide reached a record 381.2 parts per million in 2006, according to the World meteorological organisation's annual greenhouse gas bulletin published last week.

Follow-up: EEA, tel: +45 33 36 71 00, plus press release and report. See also European commission press release and report (will appear here). Finally, see WMO press release and bulletin.