Australian bushfires to contribute to huge annual increase in global carbon dioxide

(The Guardian, 24 Jan 2020) Atmospheric concentration of major greenhouse gas forecast to hit 417 parts per million in May with bushfires contributing 2% of increase.

Australia’s bushfire crisis is expected to contribute up to 2% of what scientists forecast will be one of the largest annual increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide on record.

The atmospheric concentration of the heat-trapping gas is projected to peak at more than 417 parts per million in May, and average about 414.2 parts per million for the year, according to the forecast by the British Met Office. It is a 2.74ppm increase above the 2019 average.

Science agencies have associated concentrations of more than 450ppm with average temperature rise of 2C above pre-industrial levels, a point at which some catastrophic effects of global heating may become irreversible.

In its statement explaining the forecast, the Met Office Hadley Centre highlighted the role of the Australian bushfires in contributing to the unusually large forecast annual rise.

Richard Betts, a professor with the Met Office and the University of Exeter, said human-induced climate change and local weather patterns had contributed to the hot, dry weather that played a key role in the severity of the Australian bushfires, which in turn increased emissions.

Fires have affected more than 12m hectares of country this season, including more than 5m hectares in New South Wales.

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The Guardian, 24 Jan 2020: Australian bushfires to contribute to huge annual increase in global carbon dioxide