Analysis: How far would Germany’s 2038 coal phaseout breach Paris climate goals?

(CarbonBrief, 29 Jan 2019) The recommendation by Germany’s coal commission that the country end its use of the fossil fuel in power stations by 2038 could breach a Paris Agreement-compatible pathway by more than a billion tonnes of CO2, Carbon Brief analysis shows.

If the German government adopts the recommendations, coal capacity would barely fall faster than a business-as-usual (BAU) pathway over the next decade, the analysis suggests. This is because ageing coal-fired power stations would be expected to retire anyway due to old age.

Compared to BAU, the proposed phaseout timeline would only start to reduce CO2 emissions after 2030. It would also breach the deadline for EU coal power to be phased out, as shown in the International Energy Agency (IEA) “below 2C” pathway.

In total, the commission’s recommended timeline could prevent a cumulative 1.8bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2) from entering the atmosphere compared to BAU, but could still breach the “below 2C” pathway by some 1.3GtCO2.

Carbon Brief runs through the key recommendations of the German coal commission and shows how, if implemented, they could impact emissions.

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CarbonBrief, 29 Jan 2019: Analysis: How far would Germany’s 2038 coal phaseout breach Paris climate goals?