Can China electrify all new passenger cars by 2030?

(Eco Business, 30 Jul 2019) Electric vehicles are taking off in China but a long road lies ahead before they displace conventional vehicles.

China’s electric vehicle industry is entering a new phase of accelerating development, President Xi Jinping wrote in a congratulatory message to participants of a new energy vehicle conference in early July. In 2018, China sold almost as many electric vehicles as the rest of the world combined. At the same event, the chairman of Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD upped the ante, challenging China to electrify all passenger vehicles by 2030.

New energy vehicle sales are booming, but they still only amounted to 2.5 per cent of car sales in China in 2018. Could all sales feasibly be electric within the next decade?

recent report from the Innovation Centre for Energy and Transportation (iCET) made the first public proposal of a timeline for the phaseout of petrol and diesel vehicles across China. According to the Beijing-based thinktank, 2030 is premature, but an entire phaseout could be possible by 2040. However, the report also highlights significant uncertainties ahead, including whether consumer appetite for electric vehicles will wane when government subsidies are cut.

Why phase out traditional vehicles? 

Starting in 2016, regions and countries around the world began proposing an end to driving as we know it. China’s vice minister of industry and information technology made waves when he announced in 2017 that China, the world’s largest car market for the past decade, was researching a phaseout of petrol and diesel vehicles.

The news followed a steady drumbeat of policies supporting the growth of China’s new energy vehicle industry in recent years. From generous government subsidies to driving restriction exceptions in China’s congested cities, the government has been coaxing the industry along.   

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Eco Business, 30 Jul 2019: Can China electrify all new passenger cars by 2030?