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War in Ukraine has not increased EU fossil fuel consumption
(China Dialogue, 23 Feb 2023) The bloc’s coal consumption and CO2 emissions have remained below pre-pandemic levels and been falling since September 2022.
Many observers have suggested the EU is increasing consumption of fossil fuels – particularly coal – as a reaction to the Ukraine war. However, data shows this is not true: consumption of gas and coal declined sharply in the second half of 2022, and coal use is set to fall further this year.
EU electricity demand dropped as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, causing coal consumption and emissions to plummet in 2020, before rebounding from early 2021 until summer 2022. As economies recovered and electricity demand picked up, so too did coal consumption. This was caused by a widespread drought that affected hydropower production, and serious but temporary technical issues at French nuclear power plants.
However, coal consumption and CO2 emissions peaked below their pre-Covid level, and both have been falling since September 2022. As hydro and nuclear power normalise, and more solar and wind capacity comes online, coal consumption is set to fall even further this year.
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China Dialogue, 23 Feb 2023: War in Ukraine has not increased EU fossil fuel consumption
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