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Why the Commission is getting it wrong on climate number-crunching
(EurActiv, 23 Feb 2021) The European Commission’s cost-benefit analysis for its upcoming ‘Fit for 55’ package of green laws for 2030 is outdated, assuming an eye-watering 10% cost of capital for climate action, writes Brook Riley.
Whatever you might think about the way the European Commission has been handling the vaccination campaign, its performance on the other defining issue – climate change – has been impressive.
First, the Commission made the case for a climate neutral Europe by 2050 and got all 27 member states to back it. Then it followed up with its work to increase the 2030 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target to at least 55%. On climate at least, Europe is ahead of the United States, China and other major economies.
Much of this is thanks to savvy political leadership. But there is another factor which got us to where we are now, and which is going to be essential in the Commission’s work to implement the climate goals: geeky, technical number-crunching.
To secure political backing for higher targets you must have facts and figures to back them up. Above all, what counts is the type of modelling the Commission uses.
To see why, rewind the clock three years. At the height of the post-Brexit debate over the future of the EU, the Commission was asking itself whether calling for climate neutrality by 2050 would unite or divide the EU.
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EurActiv, 23 Feb 2021: Why the Commission is getting it wrong on climate number-crunching
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