Extreme Efficiency: How Far Can We Go If We Really Need To?

Panel: Visions of the Future: Big New Ideas for Energy Efficiency

Author:
David B. Goldstein, Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC)

Abstract

Many studies have looked at the cost effective potential for efficiency by examining the supply curves for saved energy in detail for major end uses. Yet virtually all of these studies rely on methodologies that are excessively conservative if the goal of policymakers is to meet aggressive climate change emissions reduction goals.

This paper looks at factors that expand the efficiency potential in the context of the need to meet an aggressive climate goal, and the desire to do so in a way that minimizes costs and enhances economic development. It discusses the potential for continuous improvement in efficiency technology and design approach and how this can produce innovations that have economic benefits beyond the value of energy savings.

It explores some of the reasons that the conservatisms used in previous studies are not in fact conservative in the context of meeting a goal such as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration stabilization at 450 ppm or lower at least cost. It also looks at issues that have not been addressed comprehensively in previous studies, such as whole-system design and projecting the availability and cost effectiveness of advanced technologies in the context of climate policies that must correct massive failures of the market.

This paper also discusses how the limitations on efficiency imposed by the laws of physics should be considered, since they do not seem to impose any practical barriers to vastlyimproved levels of efficiency in the context of a 20-50 year time frame.