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Lessons learnt from 10 years of industry energy efficiency program management

Panel: 1. Programmes to promote industrial energy efficiency

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Per Ivar Helgesen, ENOVA, Norway
Marit Sandbakk, Enova SF, Norway

Abstract

Enova SF manages a program which draws from a government fund, granting investment aid for custom industry energy efficiency projects. In this paper we compare ex post impact assessments with ex ante expectations using data from our bottom-up impact evaluation scheme. We also repost overall program results, and estimate cancellation rates. During ten years, a total of 337 Industry projects have been supported, averaging 16 GWh of annual energy savings with an average project support of EUR 600 000, or EUR 160 million in total. We currently hold 110 active projects, 76 cancelled projects and 151 completed projects in this project portfolio.

We have collected impact assessments from 24 completed projects that have been operating for at least three years after project completion. Ex post assessments exceed ex ante estimates by 15%. Two thirds of the projects have reached or exceeded their expected annual results. The findings show that industry projects deliver sound and lasting energy savings also in the long run.

Energy efficiency projects take time to complete, and some projects are cancelled before completion. We estimate cancellation rates based on 76 cancelled projects. These rates may be utilized for predicting the extent of future cancellations on active projects. We evaluate whether intermediate project completion assessments are more accurate than initial (ex ante) estimates, which are provided in the applications. Furthermore, the amounts of energy saved in individual projects will fluctuate from year to year. Each project has quantified this inherent uncertainty by assessing the expected impacts in a worst case and a best case scenario. The uncertainty is approximately +/- 10%. Finally, we compare results from Industry projects with projects from other sectors.

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