Industrial production to 2050: the PEPIT0 model

Panel: 5. Business models, finance and investment

Authors:
Sylvain Sourisseau, ADEME, France
Guillaume DAILL, ADEME, France
Cyrielle Borde, ADEME, France

Abstract

In the industrial sector, the two main factors of the energy demand are: the production levels and the energy efficiency level. Until now, the industrial energy efficiency perspectives are quite well-documented, but the production level "predictions" for the French industry are more uncertain.

ADEME wanted to get equipped with a modelling tool for the industrial production levels through the demand for materials produced by the following 9 energy-consuming industries: steel, aluminum, clinker, glass, chlorine, ammonia, ethylene, papers and pulp, and sugar. The aim is to take into account the market changes of these sectors, particularly focusing on the ones that are impacted by a low carbon scenario.

The methodological contribution of these works comprises two key elements:

– Quantifying the production and consumption of 9 raw materials, as well as of consumer goods and capital goods (intermediate or end products) created from these materials. This quantification includes, among other elements, the import and export dimensions, as well as the recycling process. This quantification was made for the year 2014 from an analysis that crosschecked the main national or international data sources, and it is outlined in an “input-output table” type matrix representation.

– Modelling the production paths for the 9 materials studied, from this reference point and formulating assumptions related to the 6 markets. They are about the changing consumer demand, reuse and possible repair of some goods, technological improvements of material balance, incorporation rate of recycled material in manufacturing, but also trends in international trade.

Model description (assumptions and limits) and the consequences of the French Low Carbon Carbon Strategy on the French Industry production as well as policy impacts will be discussed.

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