Dynamics of energy efficiency in Sweden buildings

Panel: Panel 2. Commercial Technologies and Buildings

Authors:
Joel N. Swisher, Lund University, Sweden
Claes Hedenström, Vattenfall AB, Sweden
Anders Lewald, NUTEK, Sweden

Abstract

This paper discusses the results of a time-dynamic analysis of the possible effects of energy performance standards for household appliances and utility conservation programs for non-residential lighting in Sweden.

We develop dynamic scenarios of household appliance electricity demand and efficiency improvement, based on various levels and timing of energy performance standards. The scenarios account for the dynamics of equipment turnover, existing trends in technology, energy consumption changes over the appliance lifetime, and the distribution of energy efficiency among appliance models on the market. We consider minimum performance standards that remove the least efficient products from the market, as well as public procurement (technology push) to accelerate the high-efficiency appliance market. We focus on refrigerators and freezers' but also consider washing machines and other durable appliances. In addition, we examine the dynamics of energy efficiency implementation in the Swedish service sector over the next 15-20 years. The emphasis is on utility programs and on one category of end-use, namely lighting. Efficient technologies include improved lamps, ballasts, luminaires, controls and system designs to better exploit natural daylight and task lighting. We develop dynamic scenarios of electricity demand and efficiency improvement, based on various levels and timing of DSM investment. We examine the achievable rate of energy-efficiency implementation, which over time increases as new energy-saving opportunities appear in new and renovated buildings but is limited by the rate of turnover of existing buildings and equipment. Efficiency measures are further constrained by administrative costs, market penetration limits and the technical and institutional feasibility of some efficiency.