Applying an integrated energy/environmental framework to the analysis of alternative transportation fuels

Panel: Panel 5. Transport

Authors:
Mark Fulmer, Tellus Institute, USA
Stephen Bernow, Tellus Institute, USA

Abstract

In this paper, we apply an integrated energy/environments1 framework to a cost analysis of alternative fuels for light duty vehicles. We consider natural gas, electricity, methanol, and gasoline. The fuels were analyxed in two different scenarios, referred to as Önear-termË and Ölonger-term Ö, reflecting evolution of technologies and environmental requirements. In each scenario, we ascribe values to enviromnental impacts (externalities) based on two alternative conditions or settings, one reflecting air pollutants released in an severely polluted urban area and the other reflecting air pollutants released in a populated, yet less polluted area. We find that in the near term, light duty vehicle travel using gasoline will continue to have the lowest direct cost, and the lowest social cost when either of the environmental externalities are included.

These results assume that gasoline vehicles meet the relatively stringent requirements of the US 1990 Clear Air Act Amendments, which restrict emissions to levels much lower than is typical of cars on the road today.
In the longer-term, light duty vehicle travel using electricity potentially has the lowest direct cost, and the lowest social cost when either of the environmental externalities are included. However, the advantage of electric vehicles is not decisive, and any number of different, yet plausible sets of assumptions could change the results such that any of the fuel could be Öleast costË.