Supercars: The coming light-vehicle revolution

Panel: Panel 5. Transport

Authors:
Amory B. Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute, USA
John W. Barnett, Rocky Mountain Institute, USA
L. Hunter Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute, USA

Abstract

Ultralight 4-passenger cars with modem hybrid-electric drives could achieve < 1,6 litres per 100 km (> 150 mi/US gal composite) with demonstrated technologies such as switched reluctance motors, conventional buffer batter& and compact petrol engines. Consumption C l,O, probably SO,& l/l00 km (-240-300 mi/US gal) is probably achievable with advanced technologies expected to be demonstrated shortly, such as monolithic solid-oxide fuel cells, carbon-fibre flywheels, and small adiabatic diesels. Far from sacrificing other attributes for efficiency, ultralight hybrids could be more safe, peppy, clean, durable, reliable, quiet, comfortable, and beautiful than existing cars, yet be priced about the same or less. The key improvements required--chiefly aerodynamic drag and mass 56-57 % below, present U.S. production cars--have been demonstrated, and further -2-3~ reductions in drag-mass product appear feasible. Net-shape materials, chiefly polymer composites, could do this while cutting production costs through materials savings, hundredfold fewer parts, tenfold less assembly labour and space, and halved tooling costs. Epoxy dies, lay-in-the-mould colour, and other tiovations permit extremely short product cycles, just-m-time local manufacturing with direct delivery (hence the same retail price even if production cost were considerably higher), and onsite maintenance. This would tundamentally change how cars are made and sold. It could be the biggest change in industrial structure since the microchip. Such ÖsupercarsË face serious cultural obstacles in the car industry and institutional barriers in the marketplace. SupercarsÉ immense societal value merits policy intervention to help speed and smooth this challenging transition, making it less a hardship than a lucrative opportunity. Supercars could also buy time to implement, but camrot replace, fundamental transportation and land-use reforms.