Developing a simulation model to forecast Heating/Cooling demand in the Japanese residential sector

Panel: Panel 1: Policy and Programmes - Who can deliver DSM?

Authors:
Chiharu Murakoshi, Jyukankyo Research Institute INC, Tokyo
Hidetoshi Nakagami, Jyukankyo Research Institute INC, Tokyo
Akio Tanaka, Jyukankyo Research Institute INC, Tokyo
Yasuhiro Murota, Shonan Econometrics, Tokyo
Ichiro-o Miura, Osaka Gas Co. Ltd., Osaka

Abstract

Energy con&rmption in the residential sector continues to grow in Japan, which is also the case in other.industrialized countries. Heating and cooling energy demand accounts for one-third of the energy consumption in JapanÉs residential sector, and it is still increasing.

Conventional methods for projecting the heating/cooling energy demand quite often depend upon the use of simple reduced forms, and do not take essential structural factors into account. I On the basis of historical data covering 22 years (1970-1992), the authors developed a structural model that explicitly takes the aforementioned factors into account. This model enabled the authors to.properly project heating/cooling demand in the Kansai area up to the year 2010.