Human dimensions Methods for examining the effect of structural factors on the energy consumption of Finnish households up to the year 2015

Panel: Panel 4: Human Dimensions

Author:
Juha Nurmela, Statistics Finland

Abstract

The paper aims to examine the effect of changes in the population and consumer behaviour on householdsƒ direct and indirect energy consumption in the next 20 years. It presents an approach and example calculations. Energy consumption is regarded as an indirect consecluence of the way households function and the implementation of their goals. The theoretical premise is life cycle analogy.

The future is approached via foreseeable changes in the population, from which the number and structure of households are derived. The paper calculates the direct and indirect energy consumption of individual sectors (housing, transportation, foodstuffs and other consumption). The f&urological aspect is exploited m examining both the population trend and the average data for alternative trends in energy consumption.

These are parts of an analytic model used to estimate various alternatives and their impact on householdsƒ energy consumption. The total Finnish population will display only imperceptible changes up to the year 2015. The number of dwelling-units proved to be serviceable in analysing the effect of economic factors on the formatton of and changes in the size structure of households. Judging from calculations, the change in the size and age structure of Finnish households appears to have a major impact on the energy consumption caused by transportation, whereas the household electricity demand seems to be strongly dependent on the increase in household appliances.