EU-Russia energy dialogue and Russia’s energy strategy – the vital role of energy efficiency

Panel: Panel 1. Energy efficiency – a strategic choice for Europe

Authors:
Bernard Laponche
Théodore Filimon
Bessarion Jghenti

Abstract

The EU-Russia Energy Dialogue aims at establishing a permanent partnership in the energy sector in order to ensure that the exploitation of Russian energy resources would allow the economic development of Russia while providing sufficient energy exports to the EU.

Russia’s Energy Strategy Outlook to 2020 is based on a 5% per year GDP growth, associated with strong structural changes in the economic activities and a vigorous energy efficiency policy, leading to a sharp decrease in energy intensity. The resulting low growth of domestic energy demand, combined with an increase in energy production and a decrease of the share of natural gas in power production, preserves a high potential for oil and natural gas exports in 2020, compatible with the future EU energy imports requirements and security of supply.

The IEA Russia Energy Outlook to 2020 is based on a much lower economic growth and a limited decrease of energy intensity. The share of natural gas in power production remains high. IEA underlines the financial effort necessary to increase oil and gas production in order to maintain a high level of energy exports.

Both outlooks are fundamentally different, by their assumptions and their results. Their analysis illustrates the challenge faced by the Energy Dialogue. One major issue of this comparative analysis is that the common conclusion of both forecasts is the necessity of a strong energy efficiency policy to reach the compatibility of economic development and energy export capacities for Russia in the future. Co-operation with Russia on energy efficiency should accordingly be a first priority in the EU strategy to ensure its future energy security.

A brief presentation of recent developments of energy efficiency in Russia and the EU – Russia co-operation in this field shows that the situation is far from satisfactory.