Future of car-sharing in Germany: Customer potential estimation, diffusion and ecological effect

Panel: Panel 8: Transport and mobility

Authors:
Georg Wilke, Research Group “Future Energy and Transport Structures”, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Germany
Daniel Bongardt, Research Group “Energy, Transport and Climate Policy”, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Germany

Abstract

The article summarises selected key results of the project “Future of Car-Sharing in Germany”, funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. The target of the research was to improve the informational basis for the traffic and environmental assessment of car-sharing in Germany by means of an empirically based estimation of the medium-term perspective (time horizon 2020). Intermediate results were presented at the ECEEE congress 2005.

Basis of the demand analyses, which were aligned to the milieu concept, was provided by two surveys (a non-representative survey of circa 500 customers and former customers and a representative survey of around 1,500 non-customers). In the interviews two service scenarios of a “new” Car-Sharing in the shape of short-term car rental without ecological requirements were used. The analysis of the surveys was differentiated on two levels: On general level covering the whole sample and on the level of sub-samples covering the different milieus.

Findings are provided with regard to prospective customers (social milieu affiliation, social profiles, notional using patterns) and backgrounds of their interest in short-term car rental as well as results of a customer potential estimation and a traffic and eco-balance. The results show that a diffusion of short-term car rentals appears feasible with an eco-balance remaining positive. For various reasons, the market development to be achieved by the year 2020, however, should be relatively limited. Similar is true for the potential contribution of car-sharing to a sustainable mobility altogether.