Decomposing road freight energy use in the UK

Panel: Panel 6. Energy efficiency in transport and mobility

Authors:
S.R. Sorrell, Sussex Energy Group SPRU, University of Sussex, United Kingdom
T. Champion, Sussex Energy Group SPRU, University of Sussex, United Kingdom
L.M. Stapleton, Sussex Energy Group SPRU, University of Sussex, United Kingdom
M. Lehtonen, Sussex Energy Group SPRU, University of Sussex, United Kingdom
J. Pujol, Sussex Energy Group SPRU, University of Sussex, United Kingdom

Abstract

UK GDP increased by 43.3% between 1989 and 2004, but energy consumption for road freight is estimated to have increased by only 6.3% Applying the techniques of decomposition analysis we estimate the relative contribution of ten variables (termed ‘key ratios') plus GDP to the change in road freight energy use. The results are best interpreted as an estimate of the percentage growth in energy consumption that would have resulted from the change in the relevant key ratio (e.g. length of haul) had the other ratios remained unchanged. The results demonstrate that the main factor contributing to the decoupling of UK road freight energy consumption from GDP was the decline in the value of domestically manufactured goods relative to GDP. Over the period 1989-2004 this largely offset the effect of increases in GDP on road freight energy consumption. While the decline in domestic manufacturing was to some extent displaced by increases in imports, the net effect of these supply factors, together with shifts in the commodity mix, has been to reduce UK road freight energy consumption by 30.1% KOKO. The net effect on global carbon dioxide (CO ₂ ) emissions is likely to be somewhat less beneficial, since many freight movements associated with the manufacture of imported goods have simply been displaced to other countries.