The prospects of alternative automotive systems and fuels in Austria till 2050

Panel: Panel 6. Energy efficiency in transport and mobility

Authors:
Amela Ajanovic, Vienna University of Technology
Reinhard Haas, Vienna University of Technology
Maximilian Kloess, Vienna University of Technology

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyse the prospects of alternative automotive systems and fuels (AMF) in Austria in a dynamic framework up to 2050. In detail the cost development of AMF, environmental aspects and promotion or other policy strategies necessary for a wider use of alternative automotive concepts and alternative fuels in individual passenger transport will be analysed.

The core objective is to analyse if and under which policy and/or market conditions, to what extent and when AMF will become economically attractive in Austria in the long run and may contribute significantly to providing the service individual mobility. To meet this objective different scenarios are derived.

The method of approach is based on a dynamic energy economic analysis of AMF in comparison with conventional technologies and fuels.

The major results are: The first-generation biofuels could be competitive with conventional fuels only with policy support. Biodiesel and bioethanol should be replaced by more efficient and more environmentally benign second-generation biofuels starting from 2025. Other conceivable alternative fuels in the long term are biogas and hydrogen. Regarding automotive systems conventional vehicles will be almost completely replaced by hybrid and E-cars by 2050. Hydrogen vehicles may not achieve significant market penetration until 2040. In order to achieve long-term transition toward sustainable transport system, it is necessary to promote a combination of new, lower-emissions fuels, alternative vehicles with better system efficiency and a comprehensive package of regulatory standards and fiscal policies as soon as possible.