Modeling the development of vehicle fleets with alternative propulsion technologies

Panel: 4. Transport and mobility: How to deliver energy efficiency

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Paul Pfaffenbichler, Austrian Energy Agency, Austria
Robin Krutak, Austrian Energy Agency, Austria
Stephan Renner, Austrian Energy Agency, Austria

Abstract

Significant improvements concerning energy efficiency and emissions have been achieved in the past. Nevertheless, the transport sector lacks behind the successful developments in other sectors. Battery electric and hybrid vehicles are seen as a promising way to increase energy efficiency, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on fossil fuels while still maintaining motorized individual mobility. Improvements in battery technology, decreasing vehicle prices and the market entrance of series-production vehicles nurture hopes, but there remains uncertainty and skepticism too.

The dynamic vehicle fleet model SERAPIS (Simulating the Emergence of Relevant Alternative Propulsion technologies in the car and motorcycle flee Including energy Supply) was developed by the Austrian Energy Agency in order to analyze some critical aspects concerning market success of electric vehicles. SERAPIS relies on stock flow modeling and the Systems Dynamics software Vensim®. In each time step the number of new vehicles is calculated by adding the number of vehicles which have to be replaced and the number of vehicles stemming from vehicle fleet growth/decline. A multinominal LOGIT model is used to calculate the propulsion technologies chosen for these new vehicles. SERAPIS differentiates between electric, hybrid and internal combustion engine for cars and electric and internal combustion for motorcycles. The calculation of electricity consumption and supply requirements is included. User friendly, white box models can be published for the free software Vensim Reader.

SERAPIS has been used in a series of studies, e.g. a pre-feasibility study for the Austrian Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology, an evaluation of the Austrian energy strategy or a study concerning visions of electricity consumption until 2050 for the Austrian electricity industry. The aim of this paper is to present a technical model description and key findings from the aforementioned studies.