How far can buildings take us in solving climate change? A novel approach to building energy and related emission forecasting

Panel: 5. Saving energy in buildings: The time to act is now

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy; Central European University, Hungary
Ksenia Petrichenko, Hungary, H-1067, Budapest, Szondi utca, 18, 29, Hungary
Andrew C. Butcher, Himmerlandsvej 29, st TH, Denmark

Abstract

The building sector is responsible for about 30% of global final energy demand and energy-related CO2 emissions. At the same time, this sector provides the largest potential for lower-cost mitigation. Previous studies have not been able to properly assess the full potential for building-related emission reductions due to methodological shortcomings and the models not reflecting the recent substantial advances in construction and retrofit know-how and technologies.

The authors of this paper have elaborated a novel approach to building energy forecasting, and have developed a major model of world building energy consumption in a multi-year effort within the framework of the Global Energy Assessment’s (GEA) scenario work, also supported by the UNEP’s Sustainable Buildings and Climate Initiative. The paper presents the key findings of the model, the first time after the GEA is released.

The novelty of the method is that it follows the recent developments in state-of-the-art construction and retrofit: considering buildings as complex systems rather than as sums of individual components. Such a performance-based approach is also more in line with recent policy trends that tend to regulate buildings on a performance basis rather than on a prescriptive one component by component.

The paper shows that about 42% of 2005 space heating and cooling energy use can be saved by 2050 if the existing building design best practices are implemented, despite the several-fold increase in floor space and comfort during the period, as well as despite the assumption to eradicate fuel poverty fully by this year. However, the paper also highlights the major lock-in risk: if building codes are introduced and renovation rates ramped up, but stay behind the cost-effective state-of-the-art levels, over 75% of 2005 energy consumption will be “locked in” by 2050, making the attainment of ambitious climate change mitigation targets impossible or extremely expensive.