Prospects for alternative transport fuels in EU-countries up to 2050 from an energetic and economic point-of-view

Panel: 4. Transport and mobility: How to deliver energy efficiency

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Reinhard Haas, Vienna University of Technology - Institute for Power Systems and Energy Economics, Energy Economics Group (EEG), Austria
Amela Ajanovic, EEG, TU Wien, Austria

Abstract

Alternative fuels (AF) based on renewable energy sources (RES) are considered as major environmentally benign alternatives to fossil fuels. However, there are still major barriers for a broad market breakthrough.

The core objective of this paper is to provide an appraisal of the prospects of these AF from energetic and economic points-of-view for the average conditions in Europe in a dynamic framework till 2050 in comparison to fossil fuels.

As AF we consider: (i) electricity and hydrogen from different RES; (ii) bio-methane from biogas and from power-to-gas (e.g. from wind) and (iii) various categories of 1st (BF-1) and 2nd generation biofuels (BF-2), like biodiesel, bioethanol and synthetic natural gas.

The major conclusion of this analysis is that there is no single “one size fits all” energy carrier which can be considered to serve all problems alone. All AF analysed still face major problems in different parts of the over-all energy service providing chain. It is especially important to point out the following core current weaknesses:

* With respect to electricity from volatile RES like PV and wind the prevailing problem is still lack of proper storages.

* The major barrier for hydrogen is lack of fuel cells that work at reasonable prices for conversion into services (mobility, electricity). Moreover, over-all conversion efficiency in the fuel providing chain is still moderate.

* Bio-methane (from power-to-gas) faces very low over-all conversion efficiency in the conversion chain and still very high costs;

* Bio-methane (from Biogas) faces the problem of high investment costs and low scaling and learning effects. Moreover, in many cases the proper use of heat is a problem.

* Regarding BF-1 the major problems are still high CO2 emissions due to rather large amounts of fossil fuel inputs and low over-all conversion efficiency in the fuel providing chain.

* For BF-2 immature production processes and corresponding high production costs are the major impediments.