Evaluating the current EU energy efficiency policy framework and its impact until 2020 and 2030

Panel: 1. Foundations of future energy policy

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Barbara Schlomann, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Germany
Wolfgang Eichhammer, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Germany
Lukas Kranzl, Institute of Energy Systems and Electrical Drives, Vienna University of Technology, Austria
Michael Krail, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Germany
Tobias Fleiter, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Germany
Sibylle Braungardt, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Germany
Matthias Reuter, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Germany

Abstract

The current state of achieving the 20% energy saving target by 2020 as well as the realization of the EU 2030 target adopted in October rank very high on the EU energy policy agenda. Scenario-based analysis using bottom-up simulation models provides information on the impact of implemented policies as well as future saving potentials. Our analysis has two main objectives: (i) to assess the contribution of implemented policies towards achieving the 2020 energy efficiency target of 20%; (ii) to assess energy efficiency potentials beyond implemented policies until 2020 and 2030. For both objectives, we apply a bottom-up modelling approach using detailed sector models covering residential and non-residential buildings, industry, residential and tertiary appliances as well as transport. In order to assess the different policy options and saving potentials, we define several scenarios including a baseline (with and without early action and with planned measures), a scenario with additional measures not yet implemented and three scenarios representing saving potentials (from very cost-effective to “near economic”). Our results show that the scenario including early action misses the 20% energy saving target by 2020 by about 2.3%. Including additional measures (and intensifying existing measures) it is possible to reach the 20% target. Regarding the new 2030 targets of the EU, our modelling approach shows that primary energy consumption can be reduced by 41% compared to the PRIMES 2007 baseline by fully exploiting the economic energy savings potentials. This is considerably more than the reduction by 27% as decided by the European Council. The resulting decrease of GHG emissions amounts to more than 45% in this scenario (assuming a share of renewable of 27%). The detailed modelling of policies and technologies allows a sector-specific analysis of the contribution of individual policy instruments and technologies towards the above mentioned targets. Only such detailed models allow simulating the different types of energy-efficiency policies (e.g. standards, taxes, ETS, audits, information programs, subsidies).