How to reduce Europe's energy import dependency significantly by deep renovation of buildings

Panel: 6. Policies and programmes towards a zero-energy building stock

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Kjell Bettgenhäuser, Ecofys, a Navigant Company, Germany
Andoni Hidalgo, Eurima, Belgium

Abstract

During the negotiations of EU´s 2030 energy and climate package the political turmoil in the Ukraine has triggered a discussion around the European energy security strategy. This process has highlighted the geopolitical risks of imports and the vulnerability of the EU and its economy.

Within this framework the paper analysis the EU`s current energy consumption of all sectors in a first step and the shares per energy carrier imported by country of origin. Based on this the second step is a detailed analysis of the EU building sector energy demand with details on heating, hot water, cooling and electricity consumption. In a third step the effects of deep renovation measures (building shell and HVAC systems) in the EU´s building sector on the energy import balance are shown with target years 2030 and 2050. This part is based on a comprehensive scenario modelling with the Built-Environment-Analysis-Model. Not only the speed of energy demand reduction, but also costs for deep renovation are addressed in comparison with other options such as shale gas, nuclear energy or coal. Since measures to the building shell and regarding HVAC systems are analysed, a reduction of the useful energy demand is accounted for as well as system and fuel switches due to replacement of systems and/or new installations. Main key message here is about by who much energy imports can be reduced in what timeline and what energy carriers play what roll.

As last step a brief overview about potentials in other sectors will be given, addressing especially the effects to energy imports due to increasing energy efficiency in industry and renewable energy production.