Reinventing fire: China – the role of energy efficiency in China’s roadmap to 2050

Panel: 1. Foundations of future energy policy

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Lynn Price, International Energy Analysis Department, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA
Nan Zhou, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA
Yande Dai, Energy Research Institute, China
Jon Creyts, Rocky Mountain Institute, USA
Nina Khanna, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA
David Fridley, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA
Ali Hasanbeigi, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA
Hongyou Lu, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA
Feng Wei, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA
Zhiyu Tian, Energy Research Institute, China
Hongwei Yang, Energy Research Institute, China
Quan Bai, Energy Research Institute, China
Yuezhong Zhu, Energy Research Institute, China
Huawen Xiong, Energy Research Institute, China
JIanguo Zhang, Energy Research Institute, China
Michael Bendewald, Rocky Mountain Institute, USA
Kate Chrisman, Rocky Mountain Institute, USA
Yi Ke, Rocky Mountain Institute, USA
Robert McIntosh, Rocky Mountain Institute, USA
David Mullaney, Rocky Mountain Institute, USA
Clay Stranger, Rocky Mountain Institute, USA
Daniel Wetzel, Rocky Mountain Institute, USA
Cyril Yee, Rocky Mountain Institute, USA
Zhiya Tan
Ellen Franconi
Josh Agenbroad

Abstract

To demonstrate its commitment to the Paris Agreement, China pledged to peak its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions around 2030 or earlier and to increase its non-fossil share to 20% by 2030. China further committed to reduce CO2 emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 60-65% by 2030 from the 2005 level. Yet by the end of 2014, China emitted 28% of the world’s energy-related CO2 emissions and 79% of China’s energy-related CO2 emissions are from coal use. To address China’s domestic environmental concerns and support post-Paris global climate change action, China’s coal-dominated energy system needs to undergo a rapid transformation. How China can reinvent its energy economy cost-effectively while still achieving its domestic and international commitments is the focus of a three-year joint “Reinventing Fire: China” research project completed in September 2016.

A team of Chinese and U.S. researchers developed comprehensive bottom-up model of China’s energy demand and supply sectors as the basis for China’s energy and emission outlook to 2050. Two scenarios were developed to contrast a reference pathway of development and an alternative path of meeting national needs by deploying the maximum feasible share of cost-effective energy efficiency and renewable supply through 2050. This paper will briefly review the different efficiency and fuel switching strategies deployed for the buildings, industry and transport sectors and their potential contributions to national energy and CO2 emissions reduction. The results show that China’s energy demand could be reduced by 47% by 2050, and CO2 emissions could peak 11 years earlier. Energy efficiency improvements and strategies contribute 75% of China’s 2050 total CO2 emissions reduction potential, and account for as much as 92% of industrial CO2 emissions reduction by 2050. Remaining barriers and additional policies needed to realize the significant cost-effective efficiency potential in China will also be discussed.