Scaling-up energy sufficiency on a European level through a bottom-up modelling approach: lessons and perspectives

Panel: 1. Energy consumption and wellbeing

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Yves Marignac, NégaWatt Association, France
Mathilde DJELALI, Association négaWatt, France
Stephane BOURGEOIS, Association négaWatt, France
Nicolas TAILLARD, Association négaWatt, France
Janis BRIZGA, Biedrība “Zaļā brīvība”, Latvia
Marta GARCIA, Ecoserveis, Spain
Radu DUDAU, Energy Policy Group, Romania
Luisa CORDROCH, Europa-Universität Flensburg, Germany
Dimitri LALAS, FACET3S, Greece
Yves MARENNE, ICEDD - Institut de Conseil et d'Etudes en Développement Durable, Belgium
Gunnar Boye OLESEN, INFORSE-Europe, International network for sustainable energy, Denmark
Philippe BOVET, négaWatt Suisse, Switzerland
Yannis SARAFIDIS, NOA - National Observatory of Athens, Greece
Silvia ERBA, Politecnico di Milano, Italy
Lorenzo PAGLIANO, Politecnico di Milano, Italy
Léo COPPENS, Warocqué School of Business and Economics, Université de Mons, Belgium
Benjamin BEST, Wuppertal Institut fuer Klima, Umwelt, Energie gGmbH, Germany
Johannes THEMA, Wuppertal Institut fuer Klima, Umwelt, Energie gGmbH, Germany
Francisco FERREIRA, ZERO - Associação sistema terrestre sustentável, Portugal

Abstract

The unprecedented challenge of reaching carbon neutrality by mid-century and a large share of it within 2030 in order to keep under the 1,5 or 2 °C carbon budgets, requires broad and deep changes in production and consumption patterns which, together with a shift to renewables and reinforced efficiency, need to be addressed through energy sufficiency. However, adverse representations and obstacles to characterising and identifying sufficiency potentials often lead to a gap in weighting in sufficiency in models, scenarios and policies.

One way to tackle this issue is to work on the development of sufficiency assumptions at a concrete level where various implications such as social consequences, environmental co-benefits, conditions for implementation can be discussed. This approach has been developed as the backbone of a collaborative project, gathering partners in over 15 European countries, aiming for the integration of harmonised national scenarios into an ambitious net-zero European vision.

The approach combines a qualitative discussion on the role of energy sufficiency in a “systemic” merit order for global sustainability, and a quantitative discussion of the level of sufficiency to be set to contribute to meeting 100% renewables and net-zero emissions goals by 2050 at the latest. The latter is based on the use of a dashboard, which serves as a common descriptive framework for all national trajectories and their comparison, with a view to harmonising and strengthening them through an iterative process.

Key sufficiency-related indicators have been selected to be included in the dashboard, while various interrelated infrastructural, economic, environmental, social or legal factors or drivers have been identified and mapped. This paves the way for strengthening assumptions through the elaboration of “sufficiency corridors” defining a convergent, acceptable and sustainable level of energy services in Europe. The process will eventually inform the potential for sufficiency policies through a better identification of leverages, impacts and co-benefits.

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